Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.031398 0.035760 0.040536 0.046157 0.052596 0.059750 0.068310
2025-01-19 0.023400 0.029015 0.035724 0.044351 0.055176 0.068348 0.085650
2025-01-26 0.020429 0.026831 0.034949 0.046036 0.060847 0.080042 0.106949
2025-02-02 0.018352 0.025261 0.034457 0.047657 0.066227 0.091582 0.129108
2025-02-09 0.016756 0.024017 0.034095 0.049200 0.071429 0.103201 0.152521
2025-02-16 0.014943 0.022193 0.032632 0.048884 0.073774 0.110822 0.170829
2025-02-23 0.013609 0.020876 0.031699 0.049145 0.076862 0.119690 0.191846
2025-03-02 0.012268 0.019381 0.030305 0.048485 0.078351 0.126116 0.209567
2025-03-09 0.011477 0.018647 0.029984 0.049433 0.082431 0.136976 0.235666
2025-03-16 0.010495 0.017495 0.028864 0.048922 0.083979 0.143725 0.255398
2025-03-23 0.010021 0.017129 0.028983 0.050480 0.089167 0.157119 0.288285
2025-03-30 0.009050 0.015820 0.027378 0.048863 0.088556 0.160196 0.302554
2025-04-06 0.008296 0.014837 0.026273 0.048075 0.089449 0.166230 0.323426
2025-04-13 0.007458 0.013629 0.024664 0.046209 0.088149 0.168067 0.336409
2025-04-20 0.007219 0.013492 0.024977 0.047966 0.093931 0.183987 0.379460
2025-04-27 0.006987 0.013343 0.025249 0.049659 0.099740 0.200542 0.425805
2025-05-04 0.006760 0.013181 0.025474 0.051270 0.105534 0.217646 0.475387
2025-05-11 0.006328 0.012576 0.024779 0.050940 0.107254 0.226439 0.507714
2025-05-18 0.005999 0.012147 0.024396 0.051213 0.110266 0.238267 0.548310
2025-05-25 0.005600 0.011541 0.023597 0.050523 0.111101 0.245401 0.578818
2025-06-01 0.005395 0.011320 0.023577 0.051513 0.115768 0.261574 0.632894
2025-06-08 0.005067 0.010809 0.022899 0.050980 0.116901 0.269752 0.668347
2025-06-15 0.004948 0.010742 0.023167 0.052606 0.123225 0.290748 0.738712